For Australia to win, they must get some wickets out of their spinner.
He does not have to win the series on his own, the quick bowlers are still the main weapons, but Bryce needs to hold his own.
The truth is he is the only person in Australia for the job.
But how do we judge Bryce?
First time in international cricket, playing in India, what is the mathematic equation we use to work out his success or failure?
Mendis and Murali just took 26 and 21 wickets between them against India in Sri Lanka.
McGain is not a mystery spinner or a rubber wristed freak so those numbers are not a possibility.
In a normal 4 test series 16 wickets is par.
0-8 is the Brad Hogg failure, double bogey.
Perish the thought.
If Bryce pulls out a series like this, that might be it for our hero. He may not even last the full series.
The good news about India is that even rubbish spinners like Paul Harris take some wickets there, so Bryce shouldn’t end up in this range.
Brett Lee and Stuart Clark will have to take a lot of wickets for Australia to win, and Clarke and Watson will have to chip in as well.
9-12 the Gavin Robertson curve, bogey.
This is probably where the selectors expect Bryce to finish.
9 wickets is probably the minimum he get can and still line up against the kiwis.
This is still not going to be easy, but Bryce should be at worst in this section, if for no other reason than he is a probing bowler, who will bowl to attacking batsman and Rahul Dravid.
Anil Kumble took 4 wickets against the South Africans in two tests.
If Clarke chips in as well, Australia will at least draw.
16, par.
17-19, the Warne zone, birdie.
In a strange way Bryce is better suited to take on India than Warne.
Most of them will have never faced him, there are no expectations, this is not his final frontier, probing spinners usually do better in India than ripping spinners, and beating McGain is not a priority for India, like beating Warne was.
To get into this group Bryce will have to take more than 4 wickets a test, which sounds so simple and yet is a mountain for a man who has never taken a test wicket.
2 wickets an innings and one haul of 4 or 5 will be the sort of thing that the Australian selectors will hope for from McGain, that will book him New Zealand and probably South Africa at home.
If a first time spinner can get into this zone, Australia shouldn’t lose.
20-24, Ashley Mallet’s place, eagle.
McGain will probably need a bit of luck, and two big hauls for this one.
Looking at all those wickets in one go would be daunting, but in one spell against India A’s top order he took 3 wickets, these days the India A batting is almost as strong as their main teams batting.
McGain books South African and England plane tickets.
Australia win the series.
25+, the Benaud way, hole in one.
It would seem impossible for McGain to do this, but it would have also seemed impossible for a 35 yo IT worker with one season of shield cricket to play for Australia.
McGain will be given the Mornington Peninsula.
Australia win in a massive land slide, India turn on everyone over the age of 30, except his murderousness of sehwagology.
I expect him to get between 12-16, with no five wicket hauls.
I would have expected Casson to get less than 5.
Ofcourse one good haul early on and McGain can get to 20, and make a real difference in the series.
India will go after him, but McGain bowls at his best when players are attacking him, so it should be interesting.www.cricketwithballs.com... Aussie Haiku straight to your box
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